Extra oomph: Hosmer's HR comes after long out

Statcast shows two similar batted balls had vastly different outcomes for U.S. first baseman

Extra oomph: Hosmer's HR comes after long out

In baseball, the line between failure and success can be awfully thin.

Statcast™ helped put that fact on display on Wednesday night, during the United States' thrilling 4-2 win over Venezuela in the teams' second-round World Baseball Classic opener at Petco Park.

The lesson came in the form of a pair of swings by U.S. first baseman Eric Hosmer. The first, in the fourth inning, produced a long drive but a loud out. The second, with the game tied in the eighth, lifted the Americans to victory as it cleared the wall for a go-ahead two-run shot.

After an off-day, the U.S. team will resume play on Friday against Puerto Rico (10 p.m. ET, live on MLB Network and MLB.TV), as both teams look to move to 2-0 in Pool F.

There wasn't a ton of difference between the two swings. Both came on high fastballs in similar spots. Both were well struck, at almost the same exit velocity. And both flew to the same general part of the ballpark, in right-center field.

In the fourth, Hosmer went up and got a 92-mph fastball from Venezuela starter Felix Hernandez, connecting at roughly a 103-mph exit velocity and a 34-degree launch angle. That is a combination that Statcast™ tells us typically produces success, with 76 percent of such batted balls going for home runs.

Unfortunately for Hosmer, this was a cool night at pitcher-friendly Petco, and a homer was not to be. The drive, with a projected distance of 387 feet, went to center field, where Venezuela's Ender Inciarte settled under it on the warning track, in front of the 396-foot marker.

Hosmer, who hit an infield single in the seventh, returned to the plate again with one out in the bottom of the eighth, three batters after Adam Jones smacked a game-tying solo shot. With Christian Yelich on first, Hosmer got a 94-mph fastball from Hector Rondon, just a bit farther inside than Hernandez's. This time, Hosmer felt he put a better swing on the ball.

"I think my second at-bat, I got a ball pretty good, just a little bit in off me, and it went to the warning track and almost got out," he said. "So I knew I got that ball better and I knew I had a chance."

In fact, Hosmer didn't hit the ball any harder, connecting with an exit velocity of 102 mph. He did strike it at a lower launch angle (25 degrees), creating more of a line-drive trajectory. In a vacuum, that combination is less likely to generate a homer, doing so 59 percent of the time. But on this occasion it worked, aided by the fact that Hosmer pulled the ball more toward right field.

With just those modest differences, the ball carried over the wall, reaching a projected distance of 404 feet. And just like that, the U.S. had a lead it wouldn't relinquish.

The World Baseball Classic runs through March 22. In the U.S., games air live exclusively in English on MLB Network and on an authenticated basis via MLBNetwork.com/watch, while ESPN Deportes and WatchESPN provide the exclusive Spanish-language coverage. MLB.TV Premium subscribers in the U.S. have access to watch every tournament game live on any of the streaming service's 400-plus supported devices. The tournament is being distributed internationally across all forms of television, internet, mobile and radio in territories excluding the U.S., Puerto Rico and Japan. Get tickets for games in San Diego's Petco Park and the Championship Round at Dodger Stadium, while complete coverage -- including schedules, video, stats and gear -- is available at WorldBaseballClassic.com.

Andrew Simon is a research analyst for MLB.com. Follow him on Twitter @AndrewSimonMLB. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs.